2019 Oscars scorecard: ‘Green Book’ remains in first, ‘Roma’ and ‘The Favourite’ move up after BAFTAs


A lot can change in one night. A film can go from “BAFTA-nominated” to “seven-time BAFTA winning” as Yorgos Lanthimos‘ “The Favourite” did. Even more impressively, a person can go from “three-time BAFTA winner” to “seven-time BAFTA winner” as Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”) did.

Among those seven wins for “The Favourite” were victories for Best Actress (Olivia Colman), Supporting Actress (Rachel Weisz) and Original Screenplay. That means it ticks off two out of four possible boxes in this roundup of my 35 boxes theory for predicting the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. “Roma” did likewise by winning the BAFTAs for both Best Picture and Best Director.

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They were the only two films to earn two boxes at the BAFTAs, so let’s take a look at what this means to our overall chart:

Mahershala Ali‘s Best Supporting Actor victory at the BAFTAS got it another tick and ensures that “Green Book” remains in first place by a margin of three.

Rami Malek picked up the Best Actor BAFTA. Despite moving up to 15 boxes ticked, “Bohemian Rhapsody” stays in seventh place.

BlacKkKlansman” continues to perform admirably with Spike Lee sharing in the Best Adapted Screenplay BAFTA and earning his film one box. His picture is now tied for second with “The Favourite” on 20 boxes each.

“Roma” moves up to third with 19 boxes ticked, overtaking “A Star is Born” and “Vice,” which are both stuck on 18.

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“A Star is Born,” “Black Panther,” and “Vice” all earned a single BAFTA win each but none of them was in a category that we are tracking in this theory. “Black Panther” surprised in visual effects, “Vice” was snubbed for Best Make-Up and Hair (“The Favourite” won that), but claimed Best Editing, and Bradley Cooper FINALLY won something by winning Best Music.

Here are the complete current standings:

1st Place: “Green Book” – 23
2nd Place: “BlacKkKlansman,” “The Favourite” – 20
3rd Place: “Roma” – 19
4th Place: “A Star is Born,” “Vice” – 18
5th Place: “Bohemian Rhapsody” – 15
6th Place: “Black Panther” – 7

There is only one more round of this 35 boxes theory to go – and that is the WGAs on the 17th of February. As the maximum number of boxes to be ticked possible is only one (one for Adapted Screenplay, one for Original Screenplay), “Green Book” cannot now be caught and so is this year’s winner of the 35 boxes theory and, based on this hypothesis, will be winning Best Picture. But we’ll wait until after the WGAs to discuss that. Stay tuned.

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Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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