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Best Picture Oscar Discussion (Part 3)


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  • Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202765098

    I am thinking about the fact that the BP winner this year no matter which film wins will get between 2-4 Oscars. If Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody or Roma wins they could potentially win 4 Oscars; BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Green Book, A Star is Born and Vice could potentially only win 2 Oscars, or if Beale Street were to win Adapted Screenplay and BlacKkKlansman won the preferential ballot, it would win only 1 Oscar! I think it’s going to be Roma winning 4 – a little over 2 weeks before we find out!

    I think Roma could go anywhere between 4 and 7, in order or likelihood: Director, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Picture, Supporting Actress, Sound Mixing and Production Design.

    If The Favourite upset it could get Costume, Production Design, Original Screenplay, Picture and Supporting Actress.

    Green Book, wich i don’t think it has any chances of winning realistically speaking could get Picture, Supporting Actor and O Screenplay/

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202765262

    So… can Roma split between Best Picture and Best Foreign Film?
    I think the logic says if Roma is winning BP then should take FLF too.
    But… I was thinking: the criteria for both categories is really the same. Could this make some voters pick Roma on the main race but then get to FLF category on their ballots and say “ok, so I have Roma for Picture, I’m gonna pick (…) cause I loved that film too and want to reward it” or something?
    There’s clearly a lot of love for Cold War, which made it into BD and Cinematography, Never Look Away got Cinematography and Shoplifters won at Cannes with a predominantly Hollywood-esque jury.

    Many who liked but not loved Roma could vote for it only on FLF. So maybe we are before a different kind of vote splitting. There are a lot of questions I have about this ‘cause I guess is the first time a FLF nominee really, really has a chance at BP too.

    There are three types of voter for FLF:

    (1) Those who will vote for ROMA
    (2) Those who will vote for something else
    (3) Those who would vote for ROMA but will vote for something else instead because they think ROMA will win Best Picture.

    Of the last (and I’m guessing, smallest) subset of voters, the only people I can see doing this are ones who put ROMA as #1 on the Picture preferential ballot. And that will be, if it’s lucky, say, 15% of the votes–possibly a plurality but definitely not a majority.

    I highly doubt that even if someone puts ROMA as #2 or 3, they will risk voting for a FLF “alternate” because they themselves are still rooting for a different movie to win over ROMA in Best Picture. So if their vote was going to ROMA for FLF, that likely won’t change just because they rank it high but not the highest.

    So I think ROMA is most likely to win FLF regardless of whether it wins Picture too or not.

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    Thatcher
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    #1202765537

    If Bohemian Tragedy wins the Oscar, I swear I’m going to face the president of the Academy and my words will be:

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    O´Hara
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    Jazzy
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    #1202772695

    It turns out that voters DO rank only 5 of the BP nominees on the final ballot instead of all 8 nominees.

    a preferential ballot only in Best Picture, where voters must rank their favorites starting with No. 1 through No. 5 (there are eight nominees this year, but voters only rank their top five).

    http://deadline.com/2019/02/bafta-roma-the-favourite-oscar-momentum-1202554021/

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 22 hours ago by  Jazzy.
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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202773185

    ^so it’s the same as the Daytime Emmys, which then assigns the other pre-nominees all 6’s (not sure if the Oscars just leave the other 3 nominees off completely or do it this way?). Low point score wins.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202773204

    It turns out that voters DO rank only 5 of the BP nominees on the final ballot instead of all 8 nominees.

    http://deadline.com/2019/02/bafta-roma-the-favourite-oscar-momentum-1202554021/

    I honestly think Hammond’s got mixed up with the nomination stage, though I could be wrong. That’s the first I’ve ever heard about only ranking five on the final ballot – all other accounts I’ve seen say otherwise. Besides, only being able to rank five would mean wasting people’s votes; if someone’s top 5 were all eliminated but still no film had reached the 50% plus one 1st place votes required to win, that person’s ballot would have to be scrapped. Of course, a voter can choose not to rank all nominees, but then it’s their own decision to waste their vote.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 10 hours ago by  Eddy Q.
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    Jazzy
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    #1202773495

    I honestly think Hammond’s got mixed up with the nomination stage, though I could be wrong. That’s the first I’ve ever heard about only ranking five on the final ballot – all other accounts I’ve seen say otherwise. Besides, only being able to rank five would mean wasting people’s votes; if someone’s top 5 were all eliminated but still no film had reached the 50% plus one 1st place votes required to win, that person’s ballot would have to be scrapped. Of course, a voter can choose not to rank all nominees, but then it’s their own decision to waste their vote.

    No, he’s right. This other article from a post I made on here last month says the same thing: http://2pawsandrelax.co.uk/forum/movies/best-picture-oscar-discussion-part-3/page/4/#post-1202753646

    And I agree with what you said about someone’s vote being wasted if that person’s top 5 are all eliminated. That’s the problem with the preferential ballot. The vote should go back to being just a majority vote.

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202773620

    And I agree with what you said about someone’s vote being wasted if that person’s top 5 are all eliminated. That’s the problem with the preferential ballot. The vote should go back to being just a majority vote.

    You mean a plurality vote. The only time it’s been a majority vote is *with* the preferential ballot–though I agree that the ranking should be for all nominated slots, so every ballot counts down to if the final three contenders are someone’s #6, 7 & 8.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202773703

    No, he’s right. This other article from a post I made on here last month says the same thing: http://2pawsandrelax.co.uk/forum/movies/best-picture-oscar-discussion-part-3/page/4/#post-1202753646

    And I agree with what you said about someone’s vote being wasted if that person’s top 5 are all eliminated. That’s the problem with the preferential ballot. The vote should go back to being just a majority vote.

    I stand corrected then. Strange I’d never heard about this before. I guess the argument for this system is that votes lower than 5th place shouldn’t be counted in any scenario as they are too unfavourable. But there’s something very odd about throwing votes away like that.

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    Jazzy
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    #1202776838

    The genius of Roma as described by Guillermo Del Toro in 10 tweets:

    http://deadline.com/2019/02/roma-alfonso-cuaron-guillermo-del-toro-tweets-oscars-1202554447/

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    Qoslca
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    #1202776846

    Very interesting article from the New York Times. A journalist interviewed 20 Oscar-voters about their pick for Best Picture. It provides some great insight into what will potentially win (from this article it seems like it very well could be Green Book):

    http://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/movies/best-picture-oscars-voters.html

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    kellis
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    #1202776849

    Very interesting article from the New York Times. A journalist interviewed 20 Oscar-voters about their pick for Best Picture. It provides some great insight into what will potentially win (from this article it seems like it very well could be Green Book): http://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/movies/best-picture-oscars-voters.html

    Another article? And more sheep voting, sigh. “I don’t want to throw my vote away” like why vote if you’re not going to vote for who you want to? Like my god Jan.

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    LLLhawks
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    #1202776862

    I’m really excited to see how this all turns out.

    My heart says Black Panther for the milestone.
    My head says Roma because precursors.
    My conscience (LOL) says The Favourite.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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